The US government agency the Energy Information Administration (EIA) issues data on U.S. natural gas production, including shale gas, on a monthly basis with a lag of roughly two months. The latest data release was made on January 31st, and covers the period up until end-November 2013.
Data is reported in billion cubic feet (bcf). Key points:
- November 2013 natural gas dry production: 2,047 bcf, plus 2.4% year-on-year
- Average monthly production for the 12 months to November 2013: 2,020 bcf, +0.8% over the same period the previous year
Since the end of 2011, production growth has stalled (click chart below for larger image), with the year-on-year 12-month average bumping along a plateau.
Natural gas well-head prices exhibit seasonality, with winters generally seeing stronger prices due to heating needs. The recent polar-vortex induced cold snap in the U.S. has pushed prices up to their highest since February 2010 (here, click for larger image).
To put the current price of $5.5 per million British thermal uni (Btu) in perspective, a longer term monthly time series going up until end December 2012 is given below (click for larger image). Note that natural gas production is very inelastic over the short term. Accordingly, the market is brought back into equilibrium during periods of strong demand through large jumps in price. However, these don’t generally prompt an investment surge in natural gas infrastructure since they are viewed as temporary in nature. Only if prices remain elevated beyond winter would we likely see a supply-side response.