Tag Archives: Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Data Watch: US Natural Gas Monthly Production October 2013 Plus a Review of EIA’s Medium- and Long-Term Forecasts

Apologies for the late reporting of this number; my brain has been occupied with job-eating robots and computers for the last few weeks (and another post on this theme to come).

Apart from getting the latest monthly US natural gas number, I also want to do a quick catch up on The Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s “Annual Energy Outlook 2014″, which came out in mid-December and the “Short Term Energy Outlook” that came out on January 7th with new 2015 numbers.

But first the monthly number: the US government agency the EIA issues data on U.S. natural gas production, including shale gas, on a monthly basis with a lag of roughly two months. The latest data release was made on January 7th, and covers the period up until end-October 2013.

Data is reported in billion cubic feet (bcf). Key points:

  • October 2013 natural gas dry production: 2,007 bcf, plus 0.6% year-on-year
  • Average monthly production for the 12 months to October 2013: 2,015 bcf, +0.7% over the same period the previous year

Since the end of 2011, production growth has stalled (click chart below for larger image), with the year-on-year 12-month average now flat-lining.

US Dry Gas Production Oct 2013 jpeg

Natural gas well-head prices exhibit seasonality, with winters generally seeing stronger prices due to heating needs. The recent polar-vortex induced cold snap in the U.S. has also been supporting prices over recent weeks (here, click for larger image).

US Nat Gas Spot Prices Jan 14 jpeg

To put the current price of $4.5 per million Btu in perspective, a longer term monthly time series going up until end December 2012 is given below (click for larger image). Continue reading