Tag Archives: Global Trends 2030

Global Trends 2030: Futurology Fit for a President? (Part 3 Growth and Technology)

In my final post on the  National Intelligence Council (NIC) briefing for the  U.S. president called “Global Trends“, a report that covers potential risks to the United States 20 years ahead, I take a quick look at economic growth and technology as dealt with in the report.

In the Alternative Worlds chapter, the NIC considers four scenarios for 2030. The global GDP growth outlook for these scenarios looks like this (click for larger image):

GDP Share jpg

In my mind, none of the four scenarios look particularly pessimist. The NIC, however, describes the Stalled Engine scenario, under which the U.S. and Europe turn inward and growth slows, as ‘bleak’. Nonetheless, GDP has still gone from $67.3 trillion in 2010 to $105.7 trillion in 2030, an increase of 57%. China’s growth has slowed to 3% per annum. Frankly, I would be amazed if China’s growth hadn’t slowed to below 3% in 20 years time. Continue reading

Global Trends 2030: Futurology Fit for a President? (Part 1 Climate Change)

Every four years,  just before inauguration, each incoming president gets a 100-page National Intelligence Council (NIC) briefing called “Global Trends” that looks at potential risks to the United States 20 years ahead. As futurology goes, the report’s aims are quite cautious:

The report is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories during the next 15-20 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.

The NIC is the long-term strategic think tank of the U.S. Intelligence Community, which in turn is a cooperative federation of 16 U.S. government agencies (including the CIA) that work on intelligence issues. Continue reading