In my final post on the National Intelligence Council (NIC) briefing for the U.S. president called “Global Trends“, a report that covers potential risks to the United States 20 years ahead, I take a quick look at economic growth and technology as dealt with in the report.
In the Alternative Worlds chapter, the NIC considers four scenarios for 2030. The global GDP growth outlook for these scenarios looks like this (click for larger image):
In my mind, none of the four scenarios look particularly pessimist. The NIC, however, describes the Stalled Engine scenario, under which the U.S. and Europe turn inward and growth slows, as ‘bleak’. Nonetheless, GDP has still gone from $67.3 trillion in 2010 to $105.7 trillion in 2030, an increase of 57%. China’s growth has slowed to 3% per annum. Frankly, I would be amazed if China’s growth hadn’t slowed to below 3% in 20 years time. Continue reading