Tag Archives: IEA

Charts du Jour, 17 March 2015: Pump Baby Pump (but Don’t Drill)

I regularly report on the Energy Information Administration‘s monthly US oil production statistics, which show no slowdown in output as yet (see here for latest numbers). Bloomberg, however, has a series of multimedia offerings giving more colour as to what is going on.

First, a nice chart juxtaposing production and rig count numbers (source: here).

Active Oil Rigs jpeg

And for a great animated graphic showing rig count through time and space, this offering (again from Bloomberg) is superb. Below is my screen shot, but to get the full effect click this link here.

Watch Four Years jpeg

Finally, an animation explaining why the crashing rig count has yet to stop production rising. In Bloomberg‘s view, the divergence between rig count and production has many months to run.

National Geographic recently had an article titled “How Long Can the US Oil Boom Last?” which emphasises the longer view. They argue that the US fracking boom is a multi-year phenomenon not a multi-decade one.

But in the long term, the U.S. oil boom faces an even more serious constraint: Though daily production now rivals Saudi Arabia’s, it’s coming from underground reserves that are a small fraction of the ones in the Middle East.

Both the EIA and the International Energy Agency see US oil production peaking out by the end of the decade regardless of short-term oil price fluctuations. Nonetheless, both organisations have underestimated the upswing in tight oil production to date. Overall, it is very difficult to gauge where US production will be in five years time. This is a bigger story than the current spectacular rig count crash, and one I intend to return to in future posts.

Charts du Jour, 13 March 2015: Two Cheers for Emissions Slowdown

The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced today that CO2 emissions in 2014 were flat year on year at 32.3 billion tonnes. This is undoubtedly good news–particularly if it marks the start of a trend.

The chart below is from an article from the FT here (free registration for access). Note, the three previous occasions when emissions flatlined or fell were all associated with recessions or economic crises (click for larger image).

Global GDP and Emissions jpeg

The IEA also points out that global GDP growth in 2014 was around 3%, so the better emission performance was the result of lower GDP-to-energy intensity and reduced energy-to-carbon emissions intensity (the so called Kaya Identify, which maps GDP to emissions, can be found in my post here). Continue reading

Data Watch: US and Global Crude Oil Monthly Production February 2014 Releases

On February 27th, the U.S. government agency The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced provisional U.S. crude oil production figures for December 2013. Key points:

  • December crude oil production was 243.8 million barrels, equivalent to 7.9 million barrels per day (bpd)
  • Change over December 2012 on a barrel-per-day basis: +11.1% y/y
  • December total crude oil plus natural gas liquids reached 324.8 million barrels, equivalent to 10.5 million bpd

The last three months have seen a sharp drop in production growth rates from the high teens to just over 10%. It is too early to tell if this is just a temporary blip or something more permanent.

As can be seen from the chart below (click for larger image, link to original data here), the fracking of tight oil formations in the U.S. has made a major impact on U.S. crude production over the last few years.

U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil Jan 14 jpeg

Given crude oil is a globally traded commodity, U.S. production numbers need to be placed in the context of world supply and demand. The International Energy Agency (IEA), in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR) dated 13 February 2014, recorded global ‘all liquids’ (oil and condensate) production of 92.1 million bpd for January 2014. Year-on-year supply growth is averaging around 1 million bpd, or a little over 1%.

OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply Jan 14 jpeg

In this month’s OMR, the IEA emphasises that exuberant expectations with respect to the impact of U.S. production on world supply and demand have been disappointed. Outages in Libya, disappointing production in Iraq and higher-than-expected OECD demand have more than offset increased U.S. output (click for larger image).

Glut jpeg

As a result, benchmark crude prices continue along an elevated plateau.

Benchmark Crude Prices jpeg

Full quarterly IEA world supply-and-demand figures, including 2013 provisional supply and demand numbers, together with 2014 forecasts, can be found here.

Data Watch: US and Global Crude Oil Monthly Production November Releases

On November 27th, the U.S. government agency The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced provisional U.S. crude oil production figures for September 2013. Key points:

  • September crude oil production was 233.8 million barrels, equivalent to 7.8 million barrels per day (bpd)
  • Change over September 2012 on a barrel-per-day basis: +18.6% y/y
  • September total crude oil plus natural gas liquids reached 315.0 million barrels, equivalent to 10.5 bpd

As can be seen from the chart below (click for larger image, link to original data here), the fracking of tight oil formations in the U.S. has made a major impact on U.S. crude production over the last few years. The critical question is whether the current large year-on-year percentage growth rates in oil production can be sustained. On the current trajectory, the US is set see production pass its peak of the 1970s.

US Field Production of Crude Oil jpeg

Growth rates for both crude oil production by itself and crude plus natural gas liquids remain robust, continuing to track in the high teens. The situation for oil is in marked contrast to that of U.S. natural gas, where production growth has stopped.

The differentiator here is price. Both tight gas and tight oil are expensive to produce compared with the conventional alternatives. Accordingly, production investment requires a high product price to remain feasible. U.S. natural gas prices are down roughly by half from their average level in the 2005 to 2008 period (removing the temporary 2008 spike). By contrast, the price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark oil price, remains near all-time highs (again excluding the very short-term 2008 spike).

Given crude oil is a globally traded commodity, U.S. production numbers need to be placed in the context of world supply and demand. In its latest Oil Market Report dated 14 November 2013, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recorded global ‘all liquids’ production of 91.8 million bpd for October 2013.

OPEC and Non-OPEC Oil Supply jpeg

Full quarterly IEA world supply-and-demand figures, including Q3 2013 supply estimates, can be found here.

Prices have eased in recent weeks after the threat of a military strike against Syria was removed. Moreover, the detente between the US and Iran has also opened up the prospect of more Iranian crude coming on to global markets in 2014.

Data Watch: US and Global Crude Oil Monthly Production

On June 27th, the U.S. government agency The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced provisional crude oil production figures for April 2013. Key points:

  • April crude oil production 220.6 million barrels, equivalent to 7.4 million barrels per day (bpd)
  • Change over April 2012 on a barrel-per-day basis: +16.9% y/y
  • April total crude oil plus natural gas liquids 294.6 million barrels, equivalent to 9.8 bpd

As can be seen from the chart below (click for larger image, link to original data here), the fracking of tight oil formations in the U.S. has made a major impact on U.S. crude production. The critical question is whether the current large year-on-year percentage growth rates in oil production can be sustained (click for larger image). The year-on-year increase in production peaked in October 2012 at 18.2%, but April 2013 also recorded a very strong 16.9% year-on-year jump. Currently, year-on-year oil production gains remain robust, in contrast with U.S. natural gas trends.

U.S. Crude Oil Production jpeg

Given crude oil is a globally traded commodity, U.S. production numbers need to be placed in the context of world supply and demand. In its latest Oil Market Report dated 12 June 2013, the International Energy Agency (IEA) recorded global ‘all liquids’ production of 91.3 million bpd for May 2013, down marginally from the previous month, but up 0.2 million bpd over May 2012. The June 2013 Oil Market Report can be found here.

OPEC & Non-OPEC Supply May 2013 jpeg

Full quarterly IEA world supply-and-demand figures, including Q3 2013 estimates, can be found here.

Data Watch: US and Global Crude Oil Monthly Production

On April 29th, the U.S. government agency The Energy Information Administration (EIA) announced provisional crude oil production figures for February 2013. Key points:

  • February crude oil production 217.1 million barrels, equivalent to 7.2 million barrels per day
  • Change over previous month, + 2.4% on barrels per day (bpd) basis; year-on-year change, +10.9% on bpd basis
  • February total crude oil plus natural gas liquids 269.6 million barrels, equivalent to 9.6 bpd

As can be seen from the chart below (click for larger image, link to original data here), the fracking of tight oil formations in the U.S. has made a significant impact on U.S. crude production. The critical question is whether the current large year-on-year percentage growth rates in oil production can be sustained (click for larger image).

U.S. Crude Oil Production jpeg

Crude oil is a globally traded commodity, and U.S. production numbers need to be placed in the context of world supply and demand. In its April 2013 Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency (IEA)  records global ‘all liquids’ production as averaging 90.6 million bpd in Q1 2013, flat over the same period the previous year.

For March 2013, global supply was 90.7 million bpd (here). Over the last 3 months, rises in non-OPEC supplies have been offset by falls within OPEC. The degree to which this is due to supply constraints or deliberate production cuts by Saudi Arabia to maintain the oil price above $100 per barrel in the face of a slowing global economy is difficult to tell.

World Oil Monthly Supply jpeg

Full quarterly IEA world supply-and-demand figures, including Q3 2013 estimates, can be found here. Click for larger image to see the summary table.

World Supply and Demand IEA copy

All Liquids Are Not Created Equal (Revisited)

A few weeks ago, I wrote a blog post pointing out some of the difficulties posed by the move away from ‘crude oil’ to ‘all liquids’ reporting by BP, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) when they publish their flagship yearly reports (see herehere and here).

I also showed some numbers taken from Table 3.4 in the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2012 (click for larger image). The declining share of crude oil within the overall ‘all liquids’ mix is obvious.

Oil and Liquids Supply jpg

It’s worth drawing attention to some charts taken from a post by Marco Pagani on Ugo Bardi’s excellent blog Cassandra’s Legacy. Note Pagani’s post is, in turn, a summation of original work done (in Italian) by Antonio Turiel. We start with the IEA’s headline chart that shows ‘all liquids’ on a healthy (in energy terms rather than climate) rising trend:

IEA Predictions jpeg

Turiel then makes two adjustments to the chart. Continue reading