A few days ago, a good friend of mine pointed me toward a presentation on disruptive technologies given by Tony Seba. A youtube video is available here:
The entire video is worth watching, but today I will restrict myself to the issues he raises relating to battery technology.
Seba stresses that technological change in the transport sector could happen at breakneck speed. With a pair of compelling photos of early-last-century New York, we are asked to remember that a grand disruption in transport has happened before. In the first photo, dating from April 1900, we play a game of spot the car (click for larger image).
In the second, a mere 13 years later, the challenge is to spot the horse.
The lesson here is that once a disruptive technology reaches a particular tipping point, it doesn’t just take market share from the incumbent industry but rather completely replaces it. For Seba, we are close to reaching that point with electric vehicles.
Risk and Well-Being 