In my weekend links, I highlighted a much-talked-about paper by Texas University’s Bureau of Economic Geography on the Texas Barnett shale. The paper is currently undergoing peer review, so all we have is a well-publicised preview. The Wall Street Journal, for example, ran a column on the paper here.
Let’s start by taking the key graphic that accompanies the Texas University press release:
The granular data supporting the paper goes up to 2010. The most important prediction coming out of the chart for me is that gas production for the Barnett shale has already peaked. True, it has not collapsed—and it is not forecast to collapse, but it is now in a rather gentle decline.You can roughly see from the chart that production peaked at 2 trillion cubic feet (tcf) in 2012 and is forecast to decline to 0.8 tcf in 2030.
Let us now put this in the context of The Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook 2013 Early Release forecast for natural gas production through 2035. In short, the Barnett shale reached around 10% of overall U.S. natural gas production at its peak, but is now a net drag on year-on-year growth. And, of course, traditional natural gas production is also a net drag on year-on-year growth. Continue reading
Risk and Well-Being 